This state House race to replace David Wilkins is certainly getting plenty of attention from all across the political spectrum and everyone seems to want to know more about what is going on. Since I live in Greenville and consider myself a political gadfly, I feel that I must comment on it.
Let me start by saying that I have not received any money from any of the candidates nor am I employed by any of the ones who have announced they are in this race. However, I do have my opinions about some people that I like in the race as well as some people I do not like.
Let’s begin with the people who are running and I'll give you my take on them.
The first one out of the gate is Bruce Bannister, a conservative Greenville attorney (insert your favorite lawyer joke here). He is a young, nice guy, clean-cut and presentable. Bruce is the grandson of former U.S. Senator Tom Wofford, who happened to be one of the first Republicans elected from the Upstate. The main question I have about him is this: Can he win? While I believe he might have a future in politics and he might even be a dark horse in this race, I don’t believe he will win. He'll probably wind up coming in third or fourth, but everyone will like him which will enable him to run for some other office in the future.
The second fellow is Ben Lister, who is also an attorney from Greenville. Once again, this man is a nice guy, clean-cut and presentable. He has been a longtime activist in the Republican Party and recently volunteered for then-Congressman Jim DeMint's congressional races. But again the question arises: Can he win? This guy is really sharp and I honestly believe he will have a future in politics as well, but not in this race. He will likely have more time to spend campaigning which could pay off with a surprise victory. But again my gut tells me it's not gonna happen. I think he will probably come in a close third.
The third person in the race is Tom Ervin, a former Circuit Court judge and former Democratic House member. Yes, you read that right he was a former Democrat in the house. After doing a quick search on the FEC website for Tom Ervin, here is what we discovered about his past giving to other candidates for office. He gave Inez Tenenbaum $2,000; $10,000 to the SC Democratic Party in 2005; $2000 to George W. Bush; $1,000 to Alex Sanders; and $4,000 to Sen. Lindsey Graham. The question I have about Ervin is this: Why is he running as a Republican? He served in the House as a Democrat and he gave $10,000 to the state Democratic Party THIS year. Have the Democrats abandoned him or is he still with them and just trying to blend into the Republican landscape? When people find out more about Ervin, he will end up next to last in this primary race.
The next Republican candidate in the race is William Herlong, a trustee on the Greenville County School Board. He has long been vilified by the local Republicans as really being a Democrat. Of course, it did not help him when he consider running for U.S. Congress when he was quoted in The Greenville News in 1998 or 2000 as saying “I don’t know which party I am going to run under. I could really run under either.” Herlong will have to do a lot of convincing to the Republicans that he really is a Republican and not just a RINO. His conservative beliefs on so many of the issues will do it for some because he supports school choice and claims he is pro-life. In fact, I have talked with him about his beliefs on many issues and feel that he is moving towards conservative thinking on many of the important issues. He will be THE candidate to watch in the race because he has been elected twice by his district and is a good speaker. I believe he will easily make it into the Republican run-off race and he could defeat the Democrat in the general election.
Another candidate in the race is Warren Mowry. That name is very well-known in Republican circles because he has been active in the Greenville Republican Party for many years serving as chairman. Mowry is a professor at Greenville Tech who previously ran for Solicitor about eight years ago, but was later defeated by Joe Watson. He is a strong conservative and has good name ID in Greenville County. He will easily make the runoff, but there is a question in my mind whether can he win the general election against Democrat Michelle Shain? It will depend on what he does between now and the general election. Mowry will certainly benefit from the fact that District 24 was redrawn to make sure Republicans retain it. Matter of fact, with the new redistricting it is more conservative now then it was in 2000. Mowry can certainly win the Republican nomination, but it will take a conscious effort on his part to attack Erwin early and then rally the other candidates behind him for the runoff with Herlong. If he does that, then he will win the Republican primary and then win the General.
That's my thoughts on the race, but now I want to hear yours. If you disagree, then tell me where I am wrong.
